NEXT TURN
digital signal processing, applied to financial time series
Home Charts Markets Calendar Rhythms Seasonality How it works Premium
Cycle analysis · data to 5 Nov 2026

S&P 500 (SPY) realised volatility: next cycle turn around 11 Dec 2026

The measured rhythm of the realised volatility of the S&P 500 (SPY) points to a trough around 11 Dec 2026. Its dominant cycle lasts about 4 months, and Next Turn re-measures it every night.

Dominant cycle76 trading days
Where it is nowFalling, early on the way to the trough
Last turnpeak · 21 Oct 2026
Next projected turntrough · 11 Dec 2026 (±6 trading days)
Nov2026MarMayJulSepNov2027 cycle
The last stretch of SPY realised volatility (top) and its cycle (bottom): solid up to today, dotted where it is projected. Filled dots are past turns, rings are projected ones.

The cycle's last turn was a peak on 21 Oct 2026. The next projected turn is a trough around 11 Dec 2026, about five weeks away. The projection is measured again every night as new data comes in, so the date is always current.

Explore the live SPY realised volatility chart

More free markets: S&P 500 (SPY) cycle analysis · Gold (GLD) cycle analysis · Nvidia (NVDA) cycle analysis · Gold/silver ratio cycle analysis. Next Turn follows 113 markets with the same nightly measurement: see Premium.

Recent turns of the realised volatility of the S&P 500 (SPY)

The turns of the cycle over the last stretch, newest first, with the trading days since the turn before.

DateTurnTrading days since the one before
21 Oct 2026peak37
28 Aug 2026trough39
6 Jul 2026peak39
7 May 2026trough39
12 Mar 2026peak38
15 Jan 2026trough38
19 Nov 2025peak39
25 Sep 2025trough38

About SPY realised volatility

This is our own realised volatility of SPY: how much the S&P 500 ETF actually moved over the last 10 trading days, from each day's open, high, low and close, annualised in %. It is not the VIX, which is what options expect. Volatility tends to jump when the market falls and to fade slowly as it calms down.

Questions about the realised volatility of the S&P 500 (SPY)

How long is the cycle of the realised volatility of the S&P 500 (SPY)?

One: about 76 trading days, measured from the daily data and re-measured after every trading day.

When is the next turn of the realised volatility of the S&P 500 (SPY)?

The next projected turn is a trough around 11 Dec 2026, give or take about 6 trading days. Explore it on the live chart, with each cycle on its own.

How regular have the turns been?

Over the last eight turns, one came on average every 38 trading days.

How the cycles are found

A time series can be written as many waves added together. Next Turn measures which of those waves dominate the market today, how strong each one is, and where each stands in its cycle right now. The How it works page explains the idea with pictures and a little mathematics.

More markets: Tesla (TSLA) · Coinbase (COIN) · Strategy (MSTR) · Bitcoin (GBTC) · Halliburton (HAL) · Silver (SLV) · Oil (USO) · Natural gas (UNG)

This page applies signal processing to a financial time series. It does not trade, gives no trading signals and is not investment advice. Past turns are found with hindsight. We accept no responsibility for any loss arising from the use of this site. Read the disclaimer.