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Cycle analysis · data to 5 Nov 2026

S&P 500 (SPY): next cycle turn around 30 Dec 2026

The measured rhythm of the S&P 500 (SPY) points to a peak around 30 Dec 2026. Its two dominant cycles last about 6 and 4 months, and Next Turn re-measures them every night.

Dominant cycles120 & 78 trading days
Where it is nowRising, just past the trough
Last turntrough · 3 Nov 2026
Next projected turnpeak · 30 Dec 2026 (±9 trading days)
Nov2026MarMayJulSepNov2027Mar cycle
The last stretch of SPY (top) and its cycle (bottom): solid up to today, dotted where it is projected. Filled dots are past turns, rings are projected ones.

Added together, the two cycles form one combined rhythm, and its turns are what this page shows. Its last turn was a trough on 3 Nov 2026. The next projected turn is a peak around 30 Dec 2026, about seven weeks away. The projection is measured again every night as new data comes in, so the date is always current.

Explore the live SPY chart

More free markets: Gold (GLD) cycle analysis · Nvidia (NVDA) cycle analysis · S&P 500 (SPY) realised volatility cycle analysis · Gold/silver ratio cycle analysis. Next Turn follows 113 markets with the same nightly measurement: see Premium.

Recent turns of the S&P 500 (SPY)

The turns of the combined cycle over the last stretch, newest first, with the trading days since the turn before.

DateTurnTrading days since the one before
3 Nov 2026trough33
17 Sep 2026peak36
28 Jul 2026trough41
28 May 2026peak43
26 Mar 2026trough45
21 Jan 2026peak41
19 Nov 2025trough32
6 Oct 2025peak33

About SPY

SPY tracks the S&P 500, about 500 leading large US companies. It is the most widely followed measure of the US stock market.

Questions about the S&P 500 (SPY)

How long are the cycles of the S&P 500 (SPY)?

Two: about 120 and 78 trading days, measured from the daily data and re-measured after every trading day.

When is the next turn of the S&P 500 (SPY)?

The next projected turn is a peak around 30 Dec 2026, give or take about 9 trading days. Explore it on the live chart, with each cycle on its own.

How regular have the turns been?

Over the last eight turns, one came on average every 38 trading days.

How the cycles are found

A time series can be written as many waves added together. Next Turn measures which of those waves dominate the market today, how strong each one is, and where each stands in its cycle right now. The How it works page explains the idea with pictures and a little mathematics.

More markets: Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) · Japan (EWJ) · Taiwan (EWT) · Korea (EWY) · Semiconductors (SMH) · Apple (AAPL) · Microsoft (MSFT) · Alphabet (GOOGL)

This page applies signal processing to a financial time series. It does not trade, gives no trading signals and is not investment advice. Past turns are found with hindsight. We accept no responsibility for any loss arising from the use of this site. Read the disclaimer.